Logistical Friction Floor

Insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Persian Gulf remain 150% higher than last year. This logistical friction acts as a price floor, preventing Brent from following bearish trends seen in earlier demand forecasts.

Global Supply Deficit

Production shut-ins from the previous months have created a global inventory hole that will take the remainder of 2026 to fill, keeping the benchmark expensive even during diplomatic lulls.