Geopolitical Floor

Brent has established a solid floor above $65. While the long-term fundamentals remain bearish due to non-OPEC supply growth, the immediate threat to 20% of the world's oil supply transiting the Strait of Hormuz is forcing short-sellers to cover.

OPEC+ Position

With prices recovering, OPEC+ is likely to maintain current production levels rather than cut further. The group is balancing the need for revenue against the risk of losing market share to US shale producers.