Insurance Friction Floor

Insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Persian Gulf remain at record highs despite the indefinite ceasefire. This 'logistical friction' acts as a price floor, preventing Brent from following the bearish trend seen in earlier forecasts.

Global Inventory Deficit

The production shut-ins from the previous months have created a global inventory hole that will take the remainder of 2026 to fill, keeping the physical market extremely tight.