Logistical Friction Floor

Insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Middle East remain at record highs. This 'logistical friction' acts as a hard price floor, preventing Brent from following the bearish global demand trend seen in other energy sectors.

OPEC Production Discipline

OPEC+ has signaled it will pause scheduled output hikes in early 2026. The group remains highly sensitive to weakening demand signals from the EU and China, prioritizing price stability near the $90 range.