Smelter Output Constraints

Chinese smelters produced a record 1.33 million tons in March, but output is expected to drop sharply in May due to seasonal maintenance and record-low treatment charges. This midstream bottleneck is keeping prompt refined supply extremely tight.

Chinese Restocking Ahead of Labor Day

Restocking activity in China ahead of the Labor Day holiday (May 1-5) has provided an immediate price floor. Traders are securing material as domestic inventories in Shanghai-bonded warehouses remain unseasonably lean.