Deflating the War Premium

The sudden removal of immediate maritime blockade risks has led to a major unwinding of long positions. While the market remains in a structural deficit, the immediate threat of a catastrophic supply cutoff has vanished.

EIA Price Projections

The EIA notes that global oil inventories have drawn down sharply during the conflict. Despite the relief rally, prices are expected to remain elevated compared to pre-war forecasts through late 2026.