The Logistical Risk Premium

Despite the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck. US naval operations to clear mine-laying risks have slowed commercial traffic, keeping a $15-20 risk premium embedded in every barrel.

Refinery Throughput

High utilization rates at US Gulf Coast refineries to meet domestic gasoline demand are creating a strong pull for physical WTI barrels, preventing any major price correction.