Renewed Military Escalation

Attacks on vessels and the seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship over the weekend have signaled that tensions are not de-escalating. The 'war risk premium' is back as shipping confidence through Hormuz remains low.

Stalled Diplomacy

The lack of progress in Islamabad peace talks has removed a key bearish factor from the previous week. Traders are now pricing in a prolonged blockade and potential attacks on regional energy infrastructure.