WTI Oil Slumps to Fresh Lows on Global Surplus Fears

Bearish Fundamentals Prevail

The structural increase in output from non-OPEC countries is outstripping moderate global demand growth. This fundamental oversupply is the main factor pushing WTI lower, overriding any short-term price support derived from geopolitical tensions or minor inventory drawdowns.

De-escalation Weighs on Risk Premium

Signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and a more measured response to tensions involving Venezuela have further depressed the geopolitical risk premium. With the likelihood of Russian supply re-entering the market increasing, the potential for a larger surplus in Q1 2026 is accelerating the bearish outlook.

Technical Breakdown

WTI has breached key technical support levels, suggesting the downtrend may accelerate toward the next psychological floor, potentially around the $52.00 zone. The technical picture remains firmly bearish, with short-term moving averages pointing lower.